EV Sales in 2016 Should Scare the Oil Industry, but 2017 Could Be a Death Blow If Tesla Can Deliver

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Get $1K Off a New Tesla http://teslanomics.co/td Overall 2016 was a big growth year with a 42% worldwide increase over 2015. Charging locations worldwide increased and battery prices continue to drop with a nearly 50% decrease over the past 3 years. This doesn't account for Tesla's new Gigafactory and the economies of scale that will help them lower the cost even further. China grew the most with +85% over 2015 as a part of their big EV push to help combat pollution. They are by far the worlds largest EV market with over 350,000 EVs delivered in 2016. This is largely due to their incentive programs and their sheer size. The US EV market grew by 36% which I'm calling strong considering the cost of gasoline has remained low due to domestic oil production along with a worldwide decrease in demand. Public charging in the US grew by 22% mostly from the Chargepoint and Tesla networks. California led the way with nearly 50% of all EV sales in the US. The EU EV market grew by 13% which is down from the previous year likely due to the incentive changes in the Netherlands and Denmark. Honestly, if you live in that region you probably ride a bike everywhere so I'm not sure it matters much. Norway stands out with 19% of all auto sales in 2016 belonging to EVs. This is an interesting time because at this point they might be on the brink of EVs becoming the car of choice for all new buyers. // Sources EV Volumes Global Report http://www.ev-volumes.com/ Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkiley5/2017/02/19/teslas-1-threat-trumps-and-ryans-hatred-of-the-ev-tax-credit/#23a14a2f23fe Gigafactory footage https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLQ2p0QVhG0 Charging Location Source http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html // What is an Electric Vehicle? (wikipedia) An electric vehicle (EV), also referred to as an electric drive vehicle, uses one or more electric motors or traction motors for propulsion. An electric vehicle may be powered through a collector system by electricity from off-vehicle sources, or may be self-contained with a battery, solar panels or a generator to convert fuel to electricity.[1] EVs include road and rail vehicles, surface and underwater vessels, electric aircraft and electric spacecraft. EVs first came into existence in the mid-19th century, when electricity was among the preferred methods for motor vehicle propulsion, providing a level of comfort and ease of operation that could not be achieved by the gasoline cars of the time. The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been the dominant propulsion method for motor vehicles for almost 100 years, but electric power has remained commonplace in other vehicle types, such as trains and smaller vehicles of all types. In the 21st century, EVs saw a resurgence due to technological developments and an increased focus on renewable energy. Government incentives to increase adoptions were introduced, including in the United States[2] and the European Union[3]. Prominent brands include the Toyota Prius, the Nissan Leaf, and the Tesla Model S. // History of the EV (wikipedia) Electric motive power started in 1827, when Slovak-Hungarian priest Ányos Jedlik built the first crude but viable electric motor, provided with stator, rotor and commutator, and the year after he used it to power a tiny car.[4] A few years later, in 1835, professor Sibrandus Stratingh of University of Groningen, the Netherlands, built a small scale electric car and a Robert Anderson of Scotland is reported to have made a crude electric carriage sometime between the years of 1832 and 1839. Around the same period, early experimental electrical cars were moving on rails, too. American blacksmith and inventor Thomas Davenport built a toy electric locomotive, powered by a primitive electric motor, in 1835. In 1838, a Scotsman named Robert Davidson built an electric locomotive that attained a speed of four miles per hour (6 km/h). In England a patent was granted in 1840 for the use of rails as conductors of electric current, and similar American patents were issued to Lilley and Colten in 1847.[5] Between 1832 and 1839 (the exact year is uncertain), Robert Anderson of Scotland invented the first crude electric carriage, powered by non-rechargeable primary cells. By the 20th century, electric cars and rail transport were commonplace, with commercial electric automobiles having the majority of the market. Over time their general-purpose commercial use reduced to specialist roles, as platform trucks, forklift trucks, ambulances,[7] tow tractors and urban delivery vehicles, such as the iconic British milk float; for most of the 20th century, the UK was the world's largest user of electric road vehicles.

Comments

  1. I live in Minneapolis but travel out of the city frequently. Very few people drive EVs in Minnesota. I would say 1 out of 100 cars are all electric.
  2. since when do you believe in science? Its about facts.
  3. Here in Vegas. It's definitely only first adopters. I only see a couple here and there a day if I'm lucky. It might change when the model 3 is released. It seems China is really going to push things forward for EVs. I read on Reddit that China is pushing very hard electrification that auto makers are being forced to make more EVs. Wow. And to think China is taking the lead in EV sales. I wish President Trump would push EV sales and charging stations over the bump in military spending and this is someone that is in the national guard. I'll look into the model 3 when it is released. I'm one of those that I must sit in it, test drive it, etc before I consider buying a car. More than likely I'll wait until Tesla's pickup truck is released.
  4. Big oil are still able to kill e-cars because the modern packaging technology is more complicated than the e-car technology itself for the purposes like kill-switches and some bricked smart-phones.
  5. I recently sold my VW diesel back to the company as part of the scandal settlement. There isn't much choice for EVs here in the US Midwest yet, so I leased a Prius thinking that in 3 years there will be an affordable EV with a 300 mile range available. That's the hope.
  6. I jump between Switzerland and Germany and sadly the Petroleum Lobby is staying strong in both countries.Both countries regressed in EV sales. I am ICE'd often in Germany. In Switzerland we have a vote next month about the energy future. The Sheeple have been scared by the Fossil Fuel lobby and I don't see them accepting EV soon. I will be working with a journalist soon to try to put out an argument for renewable before the election, but... I contacted the German Green Party 2 years ago and told them they should have the auto workers union put pressure on the builders to change to EV. Recently Audi, under pressure from the workers demanded that they be retrained to EV. Keep fighting for EV.
  7. Can't electric and internal combustion co exist

    Not everyone likes electric cars because they are too quiet and I'm sure there are ways to make internal combustion engines not belch fumes into the air like burning hydrogen for instance (burning hydrogen only emits water vapor)

    I see a future where people have options to buy electric cars with either electric or hydrogen power trains

    Engine options is the beauty of the car market and that's something worth keeping in future vehicles
  8. Electric vehicles are becoming better with increased range but they are still not there yet to replace mainstream ICE vehicles. Even with "fast" charging stations, you still have to wait at least one half hour to be able to drive a reasonable distance. Now most of you will say that it doesn't matter since you will likely charge overnight and drive to and from work with more than enough range. But vehicles are more than commuter boxes. People use them as errand utilities and driving to further destinations. That's where the range anxiety kicks in. You have to plan your trip around charging stations and your trip will be much longer. The killer app needed for electric vehicles will be the solid state battery (SSB). SSBs will have the ability to charge faster, last longer, and greatly reduce risk of explosion and or fire, perhaps eliminating the risk altogether. The charging times will possibly compete with refilling gasoline tanks of ICE vehicles. Finally, if the vehicle has solar cells embedded in the roof, it can make charging from them more efficient and improving range. SSBs will be the game changer.
  9. RIP Oil industry!
  10. You expect a certain amount of nievity from enthusiastic EV proponents (i'm one myself).

    But did you ever consider what the real world is run on outside of the gas/petrol car/truck. Three combustion engine industries unable to be converted to Electric because of a theoretical limit (never mind practical implementation).
    1) Aviation passenger and freight cargo, defence force aircraft.
    2) Trucking/Freight vehicles, again defence force vehicles.
    3) Power Stations - oil/petroleum fired

    The first two are a matter of power to weight ratio being too great to overcome. An electric motor efficiency cannot be greater than 98%. A battery storage system will have to wait until nano carbon tubes are a reality and we have a capacitor that stores enough for a 2 hour heavy payload flight - but by then we will have run out of oil, so moot point.

    The third industrial application, which burns more than you would think, is common as backup generation in the first world, but in asia it is common to be the primary means of electrical generation (Thailand is a major example). The other alternatives are just as messed up and significant cost which the governments certainly won't be spending to make a change they cannot see or benefit from.

    But above and beyond these considerations is a huge primary reason the oil companies won't be going out of business anytime in the next 30 years... The plastics industries!!! where did you imagine plastic comes from ? Nearly half of the oil production globally goes to making the very parts you want to make your EV's out of, so they are nice and light. Carbon fibre is an especially petrolium concentrated derivative - both the fibres and resin.

    So while I have agreeance with cars being electric, I don't forsee these other more important sectors dying off before oil does.

    The alternative may be to have miniture depleted nuclear fuel based engines with short half-life ration sources that need refilling, so that no major bomb is created (accidently or intentionally).

    Happy for someone to disagree with the above, but would like a reasoned explanation other than troll-baiting.
  11. 14:50 >>Gas is really cheap and not sure electric vehicles will become "main stream" <<

    Um Okay, wrong.
  12. Thanks, But why "Lithium"...????.... China have invested a Billion Euros in "Graffbat Storage Cells. A Graphene Super-Capacitor Manufacturer based in Spain. With Perforated Graphene Gas Filtration, CO2 can be used downstream as feed-stock for Graphene production. Panasonic Lithium Cells have not yet broken the kw per kg threshold Graffbat have left that milestone in the rear-view mirror. Charging time is minimal, 99%+++ of energy in is energy out. not just cool but "COOL" temperature at charge and discharge. ...... ,GREAT POST SUBSCRIBED!
  13. Cheers
  14. You just earned a subscriber
  15. If every body drives electric cars it will be just like gasoline. Supply and demand. Electricity will go through the roof and we will be using natural gas to light are houses again.
  16. I'm an Environmental loving conservative, you have just lost me as a viewer you brainwashed idiot. FYI, True conservatives believe in God and Nature. So are the native Americans. We need to take care of Mother Nature because she give us life. Have you seen what the Toyota batteries factory did to India environment. Not all "green" tech are good to the environment.
  17. Currently governments are taking a huge amount of tax on Petrol etc. When that falls they will find a way to get that back from electric vehicles. So don't rely on long term cheap motoring with electric.
  18. If the battery prices have decreased by 50% why have the price of the cars remained the same? Thanks to all of the smog pollution China is producing, California is experiencing smog days. China produces so much smog it's blowing across the Pacific and polluting California's air.

    Reason EV is leading the country in EV sales is because of the cash rebates the state of California paying EV purchasers $2,500 and the power company is offering another $500 cash. Combine this with the federal rebates and EV purchasers can get over $10,000 dollars off the price of electric cars.

    Your figures for the US is a bit misleading. EV sales in California are still less than .0001% of all cars sold in the state of California.

    Something else that's happening in California... Tesla engineers are buying Chevy Volts. They realize just how much the Tesla sucks. The range of a Tesla is so limited they can't drive to Tahoe in their Tesla to go skiing for the weekend. And for those who try their are 2 and 3 hour waits at the charging stations to get a charge. A while back I saw 6 -7 Teslas waiting in line to get a charge. Look like the 1970s when people were waiting in line for gas... but this time it was for electric fuel.

    EV owners get screwed when there's a winter storm and the power goes. They are strained. And one the power comes on they are screwed again as they have to wait hours to get their car charged. According to signs at Chevy dealerships it takes over 30 hours to charge the batteries in a Chevy Bolt. With all of these limitations EV cars sales in California are beginning to decline. I purchased an EV car and after owning if for several months I'm realizing it was a huge mistake. EV cars in 2017 have all of the same problems EV cars had 100 years ago. Yes the technology has improved a bit, but here we are 100'years later and we have the same problems as 100 years ago.

    I suspect just like 100 years ago electric cars will fall out of popularity and many EV car buyers like me won't purchase another EV vehicle. Only reason I did was because my fellow tax payers paid over $10,000 towards the price of the car. In a few years I will sell the car to some other sucker and it will be a financial win for me. Thank you fellow tax payers. This is the firs and probably only car I own that I will make money off of.
  19. electric car sales are very slow here, now that we have an Orange Hitler for president, He wants to get rid of the $7,500 tax credits. So yeah it sucks elephant balls !!


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